Impacts of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Agricultural Yield and the Water Cycle in Central Afghanistan

Agricultural livelihoods in Afghanistan’s central highlands are highly dependent on snowmelt and seasonal precipitation, rendering them acutely vulnerable to climatic variability and environmental stress. This study examines the combined effects of climate change and rural air pollution on water availability, agricultural productivity, and human capital in the snow- and rain-fed provinces of Daikundi, Bamyan, and Ghor. Existing research largely remains at the national scale and fails to capture how seasonal precipitation shifts interact with rural pollution sources to shape provincial-level agricultural and socio-economic outcomes. To address this gap, the study applies a qualitative synthesis of secondary data, integrating provincial climate indices, national precipitation trend analyses, hydrological observations of springs and kariz systems, agricultural yield studies, food security assessments, and socio-economic evidence within environmental production and human capital frameworks. The findings indicate that timing and variability risks, earlier snowmelt, declining winter–spring precipitation, and longer consecutive dry periods, now rival volumetric rainfall decline in constraining growing seasons, disrupting groundwater recharge, and reducing crop yields. Concurrently, chronic rural air pollution from biomass fuels, coal, and diesel-powered irrigation imposes cumulative burdens on crop photosynthesis, household health, and labor productivity, intensifying food insecurity, distress migration, and educational withdrawal. Together, these interacting pressures undermine environmental, social, and economic sustainability by accelerating groundwater depletion, widening inequality, and eroding human capital, highlighting the necessity of province-level climate governance, sustainable water management, and cleaner rural energy pathways to strengthen long-term resilience in Afghanistan’s central highlands.